Determining the bacterial and viral meningitis trend in Iraq from 2007 till 2023 using joinpoint regression.

Background: Acute meningitis is a disease with case fatality and disability rate that is dependent on the causative agent. Objective: Determine the meningitis trend in Iraq from 2007 to 2023 using a joinpoint regression at national and sub-national levels and describe the epidemiology. Methods: Joinpoint regression model was used on surveillance data from Jan 2007 until May 2023, to calculate annual and average annual percent changes to determine the trend. Meningitis total count was modelled by year of reporting and province using the log transformation and Poisson variance. Best-fit model was chosen based on the weighted BIC criteria as the final point. Results: Bacterial meningitis was higher than viral meningitis from 2007 to 2018, then viral meningitis started to exceed till 2023. Meningococcal meningitis was lower than other bacterial and viral meningitis from 2007 to 2023. Most meningitis cases across the years were lower than 15 years, at almost 80 %, while 20 %-40 % were lower than one year. Across all years, 55 % of the cases were males; apart from 2019, 70 % were females. Conclusion: In Iraq, viral meningitis has been the predominant type since 2018. Most meningitis patients were lower than 15-year-old males. The meningitis trend in Iraq was stable from 2007 till 2023.

Alarming update on incidence of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever in Iraq in 2023.

Objectives: In 2021, large outbreak of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) was reported in Iraq and cases have increased without any significant control measures. To raise awareness about the increasing cases in different regions of Iraq, hence remind the necessity to tackle contributing factors and potential outbreak interventions. Methods: The study included 511 polymerase chain reaction-confirmed CCHF infection cases out of 1827 suspected cases from 18 Provinces from January to August 2023. Approval from the Ministry of Health for data analyzed. Results: Out of 1827 suspected cases, 511 were confirmed positive by polymerase chain reaction. The total case fatality rate (CFR) was 12.7 with varying severity levels among provinces. Erbil had the highest CFR, 38.5, while Sulaimaniya and Anbar report no deaths. Independent t-test showed a significant difference in CFR between provinces west and south of Baghdad compared to north (P <0.05). Trend showed significant surges after Iftar and Adha holidays. Conclusion: Differences in CFR among provinces around the religious ceremonies, highlight the need for one public health intervention strategy. Increased temperatures affected vector behavior. Uncontrolled animal movement with neighboring countries is an important factor. Virus or host determinants can shape the clinical case outcomes, which need clinical and extensive laboratory studies to unravel the reasons leading to death.

Identify future epidemic threshold and intensity for influenza-like illness in Iraq by using the moving epidemic method.

Objectives: Influenza-like illness (ILI) entered the Iraq surveillance system in 2021. The alert threshold was determined using the cumulative sum 2 method, which did not provide other characteristics. This study uses the moving epidemic method (MEM) to describe duration and estimate alert thresholds for ILI in Iraq for 2023-2024. Methods: MEM default package was used to estimate influenza 2023-2024 epidemic thresholds. Analysis was repeated using optimum parameter of epidemic timing for fixed criteria method, which is 3.3. Arithmetic means and 95% confidence interval upper limit were used to estimate threshold. Geometric mean and 40%, 90%, and 97.3% confidence interval upper limits were used to estimate intensity levels. Aggregated Centers for Disease Control and Prevention surveillance data were used to detect epidemic thresholds, length, sensitivity, and predictive values. Results: ILI activity starts at week 30 and lasts 7 weeks. Optimized epidemic threshold is 4513 cases, lower than default (4540 cases). Optimized medium-intensity level was higher than default, and high and very high-intensity levels were lower. Conclusions: MEM is essential to determine an influenza epidemic's threshold and intensity levels. Despite requiring 3-5 years of data, using it on data for 2.5 years has resulted in an epidemic threshold slightly higher than the threshold calculated using the cumulative sum 2 method.

Large outbreak of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever in Iraq, 2022.

Background: Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is reported sporadically in Iraq. The lack of preventive veterinary activities during 2 years of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic (2020 and 2021) led to the largest CCHF outbreak in Iraq since 1979. Objective: To describe the epidemiological characteristics of CCHF cases that occurred during the first half of 2022 in Iraq in terms of age, sex, residence, history of contact with another case, and history of contact with animals. Materials and methods: This descriptive study included laboratory-confirmed cases of CCHF between 1st January 2022 and 26th June 2022. Frequencies and percentages were used to describe the demographic and epidemiologic criteria of the cases. The epidemic curve of the cases was used to describe the timing and duration of the outbreak. Results: In total, there were 219 confirmed cases of CCHF from 1st January 2022 to 26th June 2022. The first confirmed case was reported in March 2022, and cases continued to occur through June 2022. The median age of the cases was 34.5 years. The majority of cases were male (n=130, 59.4%), had an unspecified job (n=126, 57.5%) and lived in southern Iraq (n=142, 64.8%). The first case was reported in week 10 of 2022. Case numbers peaked in week 24 (30 cases were reported), and subsequently declined in week 25 (24 cases were reported). The case fatality rate was 16.4%. Conclusion and recommendations: The CCHF outbreak in 2022 was the largest in Iraq since the disease was first reported four decades ago. Identification of CCHF strains in Iraq is recommended, together with exploration of the knowledge, attitudes and practices of high-risk groups for CCHF, and a national survey of CCHF vectors in Iraq.

Impact of COVID-19 on Affected Individuals in Iraq Focusing on Deceased Cancer Patients.

PURPOSE: Mortality because of COVID-19 infections is continuously increasing among the high-risk groups, namely, elderly patients and those with underlying comorbidities including cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, respiratory problems, and cancer. The study aimed to assess the impact of COVID-19 on affected individuals in Iraq, focusing on the characteristics of COVID-19 deceased cases, with special emphasis on cancer as the associated comorbidity. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This is a retrospective review of the data collected from 15,852 case investigation records of deceased patients with COVID-19, from all over Iraq, between March 20, 2020, and December 20, 2021. The analyzed variables included patients' age, sex, duration of stay in hospital, use of mechanical ventilation, and associated morbidities. Comparisons of having comorbidities and cancer with the characteristics were carried out using the chi-square test of independence. The chi-square test of goodness of fit was used to describe the distribution of the characteristics of the deceased COVID-19 patients; P values < .05 were considered statistically significant. RESULTS: Overall, 62% were ≥ 60 years with a predominance of male (63.2%). Patients with cancer were significantly younger (41.5% were ≥ 60) with no difference concerning sex distribution. Almost 70% of patients who died from COVID-19 infection had associated comorbidities. Cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases, and cancer constituted 49.7%, 39.3%, 2.9%, and 1.1%, respectively. Patients with a history of cancer had a significantly longer duration of stay in hospital with no statistical association regarding the use of ventilation. CONCLUSION: In Iraq, patients with cancer infected with COVID-19 were younger and spent longer durations in the hospital before they died than patients with other comorbidities. The pandemic has revealed significant gaps in the health information and surveillance systems that demand prompt strengthening as part of the emergency preparedness.

Iraq experience in handling the COVID-19 pandemic: implications of public health challenges and lessons learned for future epidemic preparedness planning.

BACKGROUND: Iraq has been exceptionally challenged by the COVID-19 pandemic due to the already exhausted healthcare system. OBJECTIVES: To describe the epidemiological situation of COVID-19 in Iraq, the government's response to the pandemic, and provide recommendations for further action. METHODS: A desk review of secondary data using the available reports on the epidemiological situation in Iraq as well as official governmental sources was conducted. RESULTS: The major surge in the number of COVID-19 cases occurred in the first week of June and continued to increase dramatically until mid-October when a significant decrease happened. With a few exceptions, the reproductive number R has been consistently above 1. Patients aged 30-39 years (25.6%) were the most affected, while those aged 60-69 years (26.7%) had the highest deaths rates. Iraq tried to contain the pandemic through several regulations: border control, enforcing curfew, mask-wearing, and social distancing, COVID-19 isolation centers, expanding lab capacity, contact tracing, as well as several supportive economic measures. However, the extent of implementing these regulations is questionable. CONCLUSION: Additional administrative and scientific measures with special emphasis on handling mass gathering, coordination with media and better training of healthcare workers particularly on infection prevention and control.

Mobility indicators and COVID-19 growth ratio in Iraq: a correlation study.

BACKGROUND: There is no prior study of the effect of mobility-limiting measures on the occurrence of COVID-19 in Iraq. OBJECTIVES: To determine the relationship between publicly available mobility index data and the growth ratio (GR) of COVID-19. METHOD: We used Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports to extract Iraq's mobility data and the official Ministry of Health COVID-19 statements. We used the data to calculate the Pearson's correlation coefficient and fit a linear regression model to determine the relationship between percentage change from the baseline in the mobility indices and the GR of COVID-19 in Iraq. RESULTS: There was a moderate positive correlation between each of the mobility indices except the residential index and COVID-19 GR in Iraq. The general linear model indicated that as each of the mobility indices increases by one unit, the GR of COVID19 increases by 0.002-0.003 except for the residential index. As the residential mobility index increases by one unit, the GR decreases by 0.009. All the findings were statistically significant (P-value < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: Mobility-limiting measures may be able to reduce the growth rate of COVID-19 moderately. Accordingly, mobility-limiting measures should be combined with other public control measures particularly mass mask use.

Impact of Modifiable Risk Factors on the Occurrence of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Diyala, Iraq: Case-Control Study.

BACKGROUND: In 2018, an outbreak of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) occurred in Diyala Province in Iraq. Several risk factors of CL were identified in a prior study; however, the impact of removing modifiable risk factors on the occurrence of the disease was not measured. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to measure the impact of removing modifiable risk factors of CL on the occurrence of the disease. METHODS: We conducted a population-based unmatched case-control study in two conveniently selected districts in Diyala Province. All cases of CL were included. Controls were chosen preferentially according to the site where the cases occurred. A structured questionnaire was used to collect data. The unadjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals for each risk factor were calculated using binary logistic regression. We also calculated the attributable fractions and 95% confidence intervals of the modifiable risk factors. A P value <.05 was considered statistically significant. RESULTS: Data from 844 persons (432 cases, 51.2%) were analyzed. Cases were more likely than controls to report a history of previous displacement (OR 5.18, 95% CI 3.84-6.98), electricity supply for less than 12 hours per day (OR 1.94, 95% CI 1.47-2.55), living in a rural area (OR 1.91, 95% CI 1.45-2.51), living in a clay house (OR 2.41, 95% CI 1.59-3.66), having an unpainted indoor living space (OR 2.14, 95% CI 1.51-3.02), having rodents inside the house (OR 5.15, 95% CI 3.56-7.47), having chickens, sheep, or both (OR 3.44, 95% CI 2.48-4.75), having a mixture of dogs and sheep or of dogs and chickens within a distance of less than 100 meters (OR 3.92, 95% CI 2.59-5.94), fogging (OR 2.11, 95% CI 1.40-3.19), bed net use (OR 1.72, 95% CI 1.08-2.72), and sleeping outside or a mixture of inside and outside (OR 4.01, 95% CI 1.32-12.19). The data show that the exposure of approximately 70% to 80% of cases was associated with displacement, the presence of rodents inside the house, the presence of animals within 100 meters of the house, the presence of animals (chickens/sheep/both or a mixture of dogs and sheep or of dogs and chickens), and sleeping outside. Approximately 40%-50% of the cases reported living in a clay house, living in a rural area, having an unpainted indoor space, having an electricity supply for less than 12 hours, and using a bed net. CONCLUSIONS: Prevention and control of CL requires a multifaceted approach that relies on changing environmental conditions, housing conditions, and human behavior. Fogging and bed net use were not effective because the underlying housing characteristics and human behavior provided a good culture for the disease. We recommend conducting a study to identify the species, reservoirs, and vectors of CL in Iraq; studying vector behaviors before applying environmental control measures; and educating the public on how and when to use bed nets as well as how to accompany their use with behavioral changes.

Alcohol sale status and homicide victimization in Kentucky, 2005-2012: Is there a spatial association?

To date, the association between the alcohol sale status of decedents' residence and alcohol-related homicide victimization have not been studied as far as we know. The current study aims to: i) determine whether homicide victims who were residents of wet counties had higher odds of testing positive for alcohol than their counterparts in moist or dry counties after adjusting for confounders; ii) determine whether homicides and alcohol-related homicides tend to cluster spatially; iii) determine whether the aforementioned associations exist only in highly-populated counties. A multilevel logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the data on homicide victims in the Kentucky Violent Death Reporting System from 2005 to 2012. Spatial statistics were used to determine the spatial autocorrelation in rates of homicides and alcohol-related homicides. Overall, 944 homicide victims were included. The male to female ratio was 3:1. About 32.8% of homicide victims tested positive for alcohol. About 33.0% of homicide decedents who were residents in wet counties tested positive for alcohol compared to 32.5% of their counterparts in moist/dry counties. Residence in wet counties was associated with a statistically insignificant increase in the unadjusted odds ratio (OR) of alcohol-related homicide victimization (OR=1.20, 95% CI=0.81-1.77) as well as the adjusted odds (aOR=1.33, 95% CI=0.83-2.12). There was no association between population size and alcohol-related homicide rate.

Hepatitis C vaccine clinical trials among people who use drugs: potential for participation and involvement in recruitment.

Candidate prophylactic HCV vaccines are approaching phase III clinical trial readiness, yet little is known about the potential for participation among target groups or innovative ways to promote enrollment within 'hard-to-reach' populations. This study describes HCV vaccine trial participation willingness among a high-risk sample of people who use drugs and their willingness to assist researchers by promoting the trial among peers. Willingness to participate in and encourage peers' participation in an HCV vaccine trial was assessed among injection and non-injection drug users enrolled in a cohort study in Kentucky using interviewer-administered questionnaires (n=165 and 415, respectively, with willingness to participate assessed among HCV-seronegative participants only). Generalized linear mixed models were used to determine correlates to being "very likely" to participate or encourage participation in a trial. Most reported being likely to participate or encourage participation in a vaccine trial (63% and 87%, respectively). Men were significantly less likely to report willingness to encourage others' participation, while willingness to encourage was higher among lower income, HCV-seropositive, heroin-using, and methamphetamine-using participants. Unemployment, lesser education, receipt of financial support from more peers, and nonmedical prescription drug use were positively associated with willingness to participate. Differential enrollment in HCV vaccine clinical trials by socioeconomic status may occur, underscoring ethical considerations and need for avoiding coercion. Notably, the data suggest that a peer-driven approach to promoting trial participation among people who use drugs could be feasible in this population and that HCV-seropositive individuals and women could be especially instrumental in these efforts.

Predicting acute viral hepatitis serum markers (A and E) in patients with suspected acute viral hepatitis attending primary health care centers in Baghdad: a one year cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Viral hepatitis is an important preventable infectious disease with various rates of occurrence in different areas of the world. The main objective of the present study was to evaluate the role of some risk factors in predicting a positive acute viral hepatitis marker among patients with suspected acute viral hepatitis in a primary health care setting in Baghdad. Besides, finding out the occurrence of jaundice, contribution of viruses A and E to the cases that have occurred in Baghdad province was also searched for. METHODS: Over a period of 1 year a descriptive cross sectional study was carried out at the primary health care centers in Baghdad. A questionnaire form was used to collect data about demographic factors and the results of the investigations. Total serum bilirubin and bilirubin in urine were done at the primary health care center laboratory. The rest of the sera samples were sent to Hepatitis referral Lab at Central Public Health Laboratory (CPHL) to be tested for anti HAV IgM and anti HEV IgM using ELISA technique. RESULTS: A total of 7,576,372 consultations to primary health care centers were recorded in Baghdad. Among those a total of 2,692 cases (35.5 per 100,000 consultations) were labeled as acute viral hepatitis cases. A positive hepatitis viral marker (A, B, C and E) was found in 1,332 cases (17.6 per 100,000 consultations). More than two fifths (44.8%) of cases were positive for anti-HAV antibodies and another 1.6% had positive anti-HEV antibodies. CONCLUSION: During 1 year period, the rate of occurrence of suspected acute viral hepatitis cases was 35.5 per 100000 of consultations to the primary health care centers in Baghdad. Of the total suspected cases, only 17.6 per 100000 of the consultations were positive for one of the viral hepatitis markers. Those who tested positive for one of the viral hepatitis markers represent 49.5% of the suspected cases. Proportion of anti HAV IgM positive tests among suspected cases was 44.8%. Factors that were able to predict positive Anti HAV IgM were (younger age group, negative history of cupping or tattooing, negative past history of jaundice). Male gender was the least important predictor of a positive case for anti HAV IgM. Proportion of Anti HEV IgM positive tests among suspected cases was 1.6%. Of the factors studied, only age was able to predict a positive Anti HEV IgM in those more than 15 years. Further studies are recommended.

Clinical epidemiology of chickenpox in Iraq from 2007-2011.

UNLABELLED: Varicella zoster (chickenpox) infection is an acute common disease caused by the varicella zoster virus (VZV). Children are most susceptible to infection. In non-vaccinated populations, primary infection tends to occur at a younger age. In 1998, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommended that routine childhood varicella vaccination be considered in countries where the disease is a relatively important public health and socioeconomic problem, and where high (85 to 90%) and sustained vaccine coverage can be achieved. AIM: 1- To determine the trend (occurrence, age and gender distribution, seasonal variation) of registered clinical cases of chickenpox in Iraq from 2007-2011. 2- To determine the need for the use of chicken pox vaccine in Iraq and putting a plan for its use accordingly. METHODS: Retrospective descriptive study. RESULTS: Frequency of clinical cases shows an obvious rise in the registration of chickenpox cases from 21798 case in 2007 through 59681 in 2008 to 74195 in 2011 with possible outbreaks occurred in 2008 and 2011. Rate of occurrence of clinical chickenpox cases also shows an obvious rise in the occurrence that ranges from 73.41/100000 in 2007 to 222.61/100000 in 2011. The rate in 2008 and 2011 is suggestive of a possible outbreak. Although the total number of chickenpox varies from 2007-2011 but all have shown the same seasonal distribution, being highest in spring (April, May) season. The largest no. recorded was in 2011 (14000 cases in April and May). The lowest no. recorded was in 2007 (4000 cases in April and May).The highest registered number of chickenpox cases was in provinces of Ninawa, Baghdad/russafa, Dihok, Baghdad/karkh, Al-Basrah, As-Sulaymaniyah. Regarding gender distribution there was sustained preponderance for the males over females with nearly the same percentage over the years. Age distribution of the registered cases had shown that most of the cases occurred in those of age 5-14 years (65%), only 1% occur in those >45 years with statistical significance p=0.001. CONCLUSIONS: 1- There is a rising trend in the registration of clinical chickenpox cases. 2- Most cases occur in the age group of less than 15 years. Males are a little bit higher than females. 3- The highest frequencies were reported in March, April, and May.4- Most of the cases were registered in Baghdad, Ninawa, Dihok and Al-Basrah.